Methods for Scenario Planning

In modern strategic planning, scenarios are often used to help prepare for externalities that might have an impact on the business in the future. These scenarios allow for some flexibility as you work to achieve your vision for the organization. Whether it includes offloading a planned effort or adding in a new objective that was previously unplanned, scenarios allow you to accommodate shifts in the organization based on signals that you receive in the market.

For those who love learning about models, here is a curated list of a few commonly practiced methodologies for generating scenarios within your organization:

  1. Oxford Scenario Planning Approach – this approach is founded upon a strategic framework in order to redraft perceptions. It aims at assessing subtle signals and identifying options that are realistic in order to allocate resources toward prioritized objectives.
  2. Ven der Heijden’s Scenarios – leverages the use of scales to assess dynamics in the world, systems, transactions and learning along with the predictive certainty or certainty of those scales.
  3. Kahane’s Transformative Scenario Planning has several phases including initiating, sensing, presencing (discovering what can be done), creating and evolving.
  4. The Original 2×2 Matrix Method – leverages two dimensions on each axis; and the positive or negative development of uncertainties. These uncertainties can adjust based on what is relevant for your organization, and can be customized.
  5. Lindgren and Bandhold’s TAIDA Method – TAIDA is an acronym that stands for tracking, analyzing, imaging, deciding and acting.
  6. Ralston and Wilson’s 18 Step Method – involves assessing the current planning culture, assigning responsibilities, determining key decision factors, identifying critical uncertainties, and structuring scenarios using logic.

Transition Designs leverages scenario planning best practices into a simple and direct approach that leverages business and market analytics to help you develop high quality options quickly. No matter which methodology you use, incorporating scenarios as part of your strategic planning efforts will ensure that you can make sense of trends, generate ideas, create options and provoke action with greater ease than organization that do not.

Transition Designs helps executives develop and execute an effective strategy.

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